Nigeria's dilemma as ECOWAS threatens war on Niger's Junta

Armed forces have overthrown democratically elected governments without having negative effects in Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, and Sudan since 2020. A lot of questions have been raised concerning regional stability and democratic values in West Africa as a result of the coup in the Niger Republic. Niger takes the continent's total of unconstitutional governments to six.

Burkina Faso, Chad, Guinea, Mali, and the Niger Republic are four of the affected nations. The Economic Community of West African States was founded in 1975, made up of 15 independent nations.

On July 26, 2023, when the democratically elected President Mohammed Bazoum was detained by some military officers, led by Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani, Niger, a significant producer of uranium and a crucial Western ally in the fight against Islamist militants in West Africa's Sahel region, was plunged into a coup.

Since gaining independence from France in 1960, the West African country has experienced five successful coups, with numerous failed attempts in between. Many coup supporters shouted pro-Russian chants. Thousands of people participated in a peaceful solidarity march in support of the coup through the streets of Niamey, the city of Niger.

Ten officers, commanded by Col. Maj. Amadou Abdramane, claimed in a televised broadcast that the National Council of the State Guard of the Niger Republic had made the decision to "put an end to the regime you are familiar with." He asserted that lack of security and poor economic management were to blame for the military's coup.

The international community, especially the African Union, the United Nations, and ECOWAS, condemned this development. On July 30, President Bola Tinubu, the ECOWAS Chairman, imposed a slew of sanctions on the junta and told them one week to reinstate Bazoum as president or face military intervention. Along with severing all land and air links with Niger, ECOWAS also halted all business and financial dealings with the junta.

Beacon Consulting, a security risk management and intelligence consulting firm, stated in its 2023 Nigeria Security Report that the coup attracted attention to the problem of bad governance and its effects, including military operations in West Africa. The company claimed that the development also sparked conversation about the international relations tenet of defending democracy and refraining from meddling in the internal affairs of other sovereign nations.

According to the report, the political unrest in Niger contributed to tension across the wider West African area. An armed conflict in Niger is a genuine possibility given the prolonged impasse between the ECOWAS leadership and the Nigerien military government. Additionally, Niger runs the possibility of experiencing a humanitarian crisis that could affect its neighboring nations.

A three-person ECOWAS team arrived in Niger on August 3 but left the following day without securing the elected government's return to power. Abdulsalami Abubakar, a former head of state of Nigeria, served as the delegation's chairman. He was supposed to meet with Omar, the coup's commander, to explain the bloc's demands.

The coup leaders, however, declared on August 3 that they were terminating the terms of the ambassadors to four nations due to pressure from the rest of the world to reinstate Bazoum.

On August 4, Nigeria pleaded with the international world to continue firmly supporting the ECOWAS position to put the nation back under democratic control. The Federal Government voiced worry that the coup's success in Niger would negatively affect ECOWAS' standing, particularly if the nation followed other nations in having presidents who were in power illegally.

On August 4, President Tinubu wrote to Nigerian legislators to request their support for the sanctions and military action. He mentioned a "military build-up and deployment of personnel" in his letter.

Bazoum, in the meantime, made an appeal for the coup to halt, highlighting how it had undermined the stability and prosperity that his administration had fought so hard to accomplish since he was elected in 2021. If Niger were to follow in the footsteps of Mali and Burkina Faso, Bazoum warned of the expansion of military control in the Sahel area while describing himself as a "hostage" at the time of sending the letter.

Outside Africa, Germany advocated continuing "mediation efforts" and a spokesman for the foreign ministry expressed optimism that such mediation would result in a "political solution."

The US then made the decision to discontinue a number of its aid initiatives in Niger. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced in a statement that "the US government is pausing certain foreign assistance programmes benefiting the government of Niger."

The coup leader and Bazoum, who was being imprisoned in the presidential palace, were both denied access to Victoria Nuland, acting deputy secretary of state of the United States, on August 7.

A joint UN, AU, and ECOWAS delegation's plans to visit Niamey on August 8 were also shelved after the coup leaders indicated they would not be available to meet with the team.

Ajuri Ngelale, the presidential spokesperson for Nigeria, informed journalists on August 8 in Abuja that more sanctions had been placed on people and organizations connected to the military junta.

Nigerien banks won't be able to conduct financial transactions with their Nigerian counterparts due to the new sanctions imposed by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Additionally, the Federal Government barred the importation of commodities from Nigerian ports and shut the country's borders with Niger.

The leaders of the coup responded by closing their nation's airspace till further notice, claiming the possibility of neighboring militaries interfering as justification. In order to overthrow Niger's military leadership, the West African bloc authorized military involvement "as soon as possible" on August 10.

It is not the first time that ECOWAS has used armed forces to reestablish democracy in its region. A civil war broke out in Liberia in 1989 as a result of Charles Taylor, a former president, leading a militia against the government of the nation. Through its Monitoring Group, ECOWAS attempted to get involved in 1990. In 1997, the organization relocated to Freetown, Sierra Leone, and replaced Ahmed Kabbah's elected government, which Johnny Koroma had toppled in a military coup. Following a coup in Mali in 2012, troops from a number of West African nations, primarily Nigeria, as well as the Ivory Coast, Niger, and Burkina Faso, began to intervene. The most recent intervention, led by Senegal, took place in The Gambia in 2017 to remove Yahya Jammel, who had refused to accept the election to Adama Barrow in 2016.

The junta eventually consented to discussions with the regional organization to resolve the political situation in the Sahel country after weeks of rejecting diplomatic efforts from the United Nations, AU, ECOWAS, and the United States. The military authorities sent a favorable signal after meeting on August 12 in Niamey with a delegation of Nigerian Islamic clerics.

Sheik Bala Lau led the Ulammas in a lengthy discussion with General Abdourahmane Tchiani about all the issues, including the call for Bazoum's reinstatement from the ECOWAS leaders. The junta expressed resentment at the Niger sanctions, claiming the sub-regional authorities never bothered to contact them.

Ali Zeine, the recently appointed prime minister, expressed optimism that negotiations with ECOWAS would start soon and reaffirmed that the junta was prepared for a discussion.

"We have reached an understanding, and the president of our nation has authorized dialogue," Zeine said. They will now return and let the President of Nigeria know what they learned from us. We are hoping that ECOWAS would visit us soon to talk about how the sanctions put in place against us will be lifted.

Unfortunately, on August 12, disagreements arose in the ECOWAS Parliament about the course that should be pursued to resolve the Niger problem. A virtual emergency conference of 22 lawmakers was held to talk about the nation's political predicament. While some members of the parliament advocated for negotiation and diplomacy, others urged action to halt the spread of military rule in the area.

Additionally, ECOWAS was made aware of Bazoum's purported involvement in high treason prosecutions. It denounced the action because it was yet another provocative act and went against the junta's purported desire to reinstate constitutional order through peaceful methods.