It should be remembered that against a dictatorship the objective of the grand strategy is not simply to bring down the dictators but to install a democratic system and make the rise of a new dictatorship impossible. To accomplish these objectives, the chosen means of struggle will need to contribute to a change in the distribution of effective power in society. Under the dictatorship, the population and civil institutions of the society have been too weak, and the government too strong. Without a change in the imbalance, a new set of rulers can, if they wish, be just as dictatorial as the old ones. A ‘palace revolution’ or a coup d’état therefore is not welcome – Gene Sharp, From Dictatorship to Democracy.
A significant factor in coups in Africa is officers' personal grievances with the system and the structure of government. The military has frequently complained of being underfunded and ignored by political leadership while crucial choices for the nation are being made.
Politicians frequently ignore the military's complaints, and the military responds by using the weapons it has access to thanks to state money to overthrow the government. There are numerous instances of Presidential guards complaining across the continent, with the most recent ones occurring in Guinea and Niger and ultimately forcing the removal of the two countries' presidents.
Niger
President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger was detained inside his palace in July 2023 by members of the country's presidential guard, who then appeared on national television to announce their takeover of power to address the "deteriorating security situation and bad governance." The intriguing aspect is that the military would not perform better because they lack the necessary tools to carry out the task for which they have applied for. The Russian Roulette game continues while the people suffer in abject poverty, and frequently one set of military forces is followed by the removal of another group.
As Interim president, Doumbouya pledged to hold democratic elections within three years. In addition to imposing sanctions on junta members and their family members, including the freezing of their bank accounts, ECOWAS rejected the deadline.
Later, the military dictatorship suggested beginning the 24-month transition in January 2023, although opposition parties claim that little has been done to establish institutions and a plan for returning to constitutional governance.
Returning to Niger, a few days later the junta appointed Abdourahamane Tiani, the chief of the presidential guard, as the new head of state, prompting worries about the security of the area where Niger has been a crucial partner of Western forces aiming to repress groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State.
Guinea
President Alpha Conde was overthrown by Special Forces leader Colonel Mamady Doumbouya in September 2021. Conde had altered the constitution a year earlier to get around restrictions that would have prohibited him from running for a third term, which had led to severe unrest. Any politician who attempts to undermine the State through its tools is wrong. The Presidential is not just the Bongos or the Gnassingbes' playground.
As Interim president, Doumbouya pledged to hold democratic elections within three years. In addition to imposing sanctions on junta members and their family members, including the freezing of their bank accounts, ECOWAS rejected the deadline.
Later, the military dictatorship suggested beginning the 24-month transition in January 2023, although opposition parties claim that little has been done to establish institutions and a plan for returning to constitutional governance.
Due to the continuing security threat and the weakening situation of the economy, the military has become more popular in many nations. In addition to this, the military's unconventional stance portrays a picture of a change from the status quo.
France is used as a scapegoat by the military whenever a coup d'état occurs in the corridor of coup d'états on the continent since several countries in the CFA Francs zone aren't doing so well and France isn't doing much to stabilize their economies while sucking away their natural resources at give away price.
No one can deny the cascading effects of past coups in the area. But it's essential to note that although Anglophone Africa appears peaceful, all of the political unrest is taking place in Francophone Africa. We are unsure of how long this stability will persist. Real and terrifying is the domino effect.
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso's army deposed President Roch Kabore in January 2022, accusing him of failing to control the atrocities committed by Islamist terrorists operating in the Sahel.
Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba, the leader of the coup, promised to reestablish security, but as attacks increased and military morale deteriorated, a second coup—led by the current junta's leader Captain Ibrahim Traore—took place in September 2022.
The Way Forward:
For the sake of national salvation, the politicians and the armed forces of West Africa need to be refocused and reeducated. In the past three years, there have been coup d'états in the West African nations of Niger, Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso.
Despite all the ECOWAS threats military governments continue to rule each nation. One has a suspicion that these military juntas are following Captain Yaya Jammeh's example in the Gambia and hoping to succeed on their own.
Regional instability, bad leadership by elected officials, and a history of numerous successful coups are the causes of this wave of coups d'etats. The public is watching and will only back leaders who are sincere and have intentions that can be trusted. The majority of politicians fall well short of public expectations. To stop winking at the men wearing fatigues from the military, they must hone their craft.
There is evidence from other West African countries that democratic growth is achievable and that future coups are not inevitable. All stakeholders would find it interesting to contemplate the future if governance is downplayed and equity, transparency, and accountability are fed to the dogs.
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